Severe Storm Threat Rising for Dakotas, Montana This Week

Chances for severe thunderstorms have been part of the forecast all week, off and on. The later part of the week now appears to have a greater chance for some enthusiastic weather in the North and South Dakota and also Montana.

As of the Tuesday afternoon update, chances for Thursday seem to be on the rise for severe thunderstorms in a big part of Montana and North Dakota as well. South Dakota may get in on some of that activity as well. The Storm Prediction Center is now watching these areas for a slight chance of severe weather on Thursday.

While there is still some uncertainty about the specifics, the likelihood of damaging thunderstorms on Thursday has increased sufficiently to issue a Slight Chance outlook. Storms will be possible into the night on Thursday as well, with initial storms forming by late afternoon east of the Rocky Mountains over Montana. These storms will then move into areas with sufficient moisture and CAPE values supportive for fueling storms as this Pivotal Weather map shows.

What is the biggest threat from the storms on Thursday?

Any supercells that form initially over North Dakota will be capable of producing very large hail. Later, going into the overnight hours, the storms will likely merge into a larger complex of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) and then the greatest threat will be for damaging winds and wind gusts.

The exact details of where and when with the storms that are expected on Thursday may change somewhat by Thursday, but there's a good chance that some pretty damaging storms will be rolling through Montana and North and South Dakota once again later this week. If you live in or plan to be traveling through these areas, make sure you have multiple ways to get weather warnings from the National Weather Service if they are issued.